:Product: 20020224RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Feb 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 055 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 9830 (S17W64) produced
several C-class events, the largest being a C7/Sf at 23/2250Z, and a
C9/Sf flare at 24/2031Z. This region continues to be the largest and
most active region on the visible disk and still maintains a delta
configuration. Region 9844 (N22E18), a relatively small D type
group, developed some complexity and produced occasional C-class
flares, the largest being a C5/Sf at 24/2052Z. Region 9841 (S20W47)
produced a C4/Sf at 24/1447Z, with a Type II sweep (800km/s). New
flux emergence and occasional subflares were observed in Regions
9839 (S17W35), and 9842 (S19W23). New Regions 9846 (S04W37), and
9847 (S14E50) were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9830 still maintains good potential for an
M-class flare with an isolated chance of a major flare. Regions
9839, 9842, and 9844 will likely produce occasional C-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with very isolated unsettled
periods.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly quiet levels with occasional
unsettled periods.
III.  Event Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
Class M    50/50/40
Class X    10/10/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Feb 193
Predicted   25 Feb-27 Feb  190/185/180
90 Day Mean        24 Feb 223
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb  007/005-007/005-007/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor storm           10/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05