:Product: 20020225RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Feb 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 056 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate due to an M1 flare which
occurred at 25/0257 UTC. No flare reports were received but SOHO
images suggest that Region 9830 (S18W79) was the source. This region
also produced several C-class subflares throughout the past day. It
remains the largest sunspot group on the disk but is rapidly
decaying. Regions 9842 (S19W36) and 9846 (S04W53) are growing.
Region 9846 also produced several C-class subflares. New Regions
9848 (S20E33) and 9849 (N23E69) were numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9830 appears capable of an additional M-class
flare before it rotates around the west limb.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Feb 211
Predicted   26 Feb-28 Feb  215/220/220
90 Day Mean        25 Feb 223
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb  007/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb  007/005-007/007-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01