:Product: 20020226RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Feb 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 057 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Several C-class subflares
occurred from a variety of regions. The largest was an impulsive
C9/Sf at 26/1027 UTC in Region 9830 (S17W92). Regions 9842 (S19W49)
and 9846 (S03W68) continued to grow in sunspot number and area. Both
regions produced C-class activity during the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. An isolated M-class flare is possible in Region 9830,
9842, or 9846.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 27 Feb-01 Mar
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Feb 208
Predicted   27 Feb-01 Mar  200/195/190
90 Day Mean        26 Feb 223
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb  004/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Feb  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Feb-01 Mar  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb-01 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01