:Product: 20020227RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Feb 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 058 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. An M1/Sf flare occurred at
27/1558 UTC in Region 9839 (S18W75). This region also produced a few
C-class subflares. Growth in Regions 9842 (S19W63) and 9846 (S03W82)
appears to have stabilized and neither area has produced significant
flares in the past day. New Region 9850 (N27W51) emerged on the
disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Another low-level M-class flare is possible in any one
of a number of regions, including 9839 (S18W75), 9842 (S19W63), 9845
(N17E21), and 9846 (S03W82).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Feb 199
Predicted   28 Feb-02 Mar  195/190/190
90 Day Mean        27 Feb 223
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Feb  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Feb-02 Mar  005/008-005/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01