:Product: 20020228RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Feb 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 059 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. An M2 flare occurred at
28/0012 UTC and was associated with an eruptive limb event near
S25W90. Several C-class subflares also occurred. Regions 9844
(N22W34) and 9845 (N18E08) grew in sunspot number and area.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Feb 204
Predicted   01 Mar-03 Mar  200/200/200
90 Day Mean        28 Feb 223
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar  005/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01