:Product: 20020302RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Mar 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 061 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 9845 (N18W18) produced
the largest flare of the period, a C4/Sf at 02/2016 UTC.  Earlier,
an impressive prominence erupted off the southeast limb, near
S43E90, beginning at about 02/1345 UTC.  This event was visible in
SOHO/EIT and H-alpha imagery, and a subsequent CME was seen in LASCO
imagery, though not appearing earth-directed.  A slight x-ray
enhancement accompanied this event, and persisted through the
remainder of the period.  New Region 9853 (S24E69) was numbered
today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low.  A chance for isolated M-class activity exists
for Region 9845.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with some isolated unsettled
periods during 02/1500-2100 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled through day one.  Onset of high
speed stream effects from a large, positive-polarity coronal hole
are expected to develop during day two, and persist for the
remainder of the forecast period, with active conditions likely and
isolated minor storm periods at higher latitudes possible.
III.  Event Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Mar 191
Predicted   03 Mar-05 Mar  185/185/180
90 Day Mean        02 Mar 222
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar  009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Mar  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar  007/008-010/010-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/35
Minor storm           05/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/30/40
Minor storm           05/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01