:Product: 20020303RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Mar 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 062 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Mar 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  A few weak C-class events
occurred, none of which were correlated with optical reports.
SOHO/EIT and available H-alpha imagery suggest that Region 9845
(N18W33) was the likely source of most activity, although Region
9851 (S06E29) appears to have produced a C2 event at 03/0256 UTC.
Three new regions were numbered today:  9854 (N11W09), 9855
(N12E25), and 9856 (S07E74).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low, with Region 9845 remaining a possible source of
isolated moderate activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels, with the onset of high
speed stream effects from a recurrent coronal hole during the next
24-36 hours.  Active and isolated minor storm conditions are
expected to occur thereafter through the end of the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Mar 183
Predicted   04 Mar-06 Mar  185/180/175
90 Day Mean        03 Mar 222
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Mar  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Mar  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Mar-06 Mar  010/010-015/020-020/030
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/35/40
Minor storm           10/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/40/45
Minor storm           10/15/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/01