:Product: 20020305RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Mar 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 064 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  A B9 flare
(optically uncorrelated) occurred at 05/0534 UTC, this was the only
recorded flare of the period.  Several Type III radio sweeps
comprised the rest of the activity seen during the period.  Region
9845 (N17W60) saw a decrease in spot count but remained unchanged in
areal coverage.  Region 9851 (S06E02) has shown some growth in spot
coverage and magnetic complexity late in the period.  New Regions
9860 (S06E61) and 9861 (N07E66) were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  Region 9845 continues to be complex enough to possibly
produce an isolated M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels.  High
speed stream effects of a large, recurrent coronal hole remains
geoeffective.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at quiet to active conditions through day one of
the forecast period.  Due to coronal hole effects, minor storm
conditions may be possible at higher latitudes through day one as
well.  Days two and three should see a return to quiet to unsettled
conditions.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Mar 172
Predicted   06 Mar-08 Mar  170/170/175
90 Day Mean        05 Mar 220
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Mar  017/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar  020/030-012/015-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/20
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/35/25
Minor storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    10/01/01