:Product: 20020306RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Mar 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 065 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  A C1 flare
(optically uncorrelated) was the extent of the observed flare
activity for the period.  Several minor discrete radio bursts and
multiple Type III radio sweeps comprised most of the rest of the
day's activity.  At the beginning of the period, a 14 degree
disappearing filament was seen near S43W25 which made up the rest of
the activity for today.  Region 9845 (N17W74) remains quiescent and
showed continued gradual decay, although this region continues to
show moderate complexity.  New Regions 9862 (N06W58), and 9863
(N18W37) were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  Region 9845 continues to exhibit a slight possibility
of producing an isolated M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels.  High
speed stream effects of a large, transequatorial, coronal hole
continues.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at quiet to active levels through most of day one
due to continued coronal hole effects.  The remainder of the
forecast period should see a return to quiet to unsettled
conditions.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
Class M    25/25/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Mar 178
Predicted   07 Mar-09 Mar  185/185/190
90 Day Mean        06 Mar 219
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar  010/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Mar  014/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar  012/015-012/012-008/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/30/25
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01