:Product: 20020308RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Mar 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 067 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Mar 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  The largest flare of
the period was an optically uncorrelated C8 x-ray flare that
occurred at 08/1456 UTC.  There were many minor C-class flares
during the period with two of them being attributed to Region 9859
(S10W05).  This region is unimpressive but did show steady minor
growth of umbral coverage today.  Very little recorded radio
activity today.  New Regions 9865 (N14E72), and 9866 (S10E80) were
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  There is a slight chance of an isolated minor M-class
flare occurring from Region 9859.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained elevated throughout the
period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at predominantly quiet levels with isolated
unsettled conditions through the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Mar 177
Predicted   09 Mar-11 Mar  175/175/175
90 Day Mean        08 Mar 218
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Mar  005/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Mar  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar  006/006-006/006-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01