:Product: 20020309RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Mar 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 068 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate, due to the occurrence of a
long-duration M2/1f flare from Region 9866 (S10E73) at 09/1856 UTC.
This region has rotated into better view and now appears as a large
and moderately complex bipolar group (in an Eko beta-gamma
configuration, with 560 millionths areal coverage in white light).
No reports of radio sweeps or SOHO/LASCO imagery, inferring
potential CME characteristics, were received prior to the end of the
period.  Today's 10.7cm noon flux reading of 208sfu was likely
enhanced due to the flare activity, so the morning reading of 184sfu
has been substituted for the daily value.  Other activity included
minor C-class flares from Region 9864 (N19E43).  No new regions were
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 9866 is a likely source of additional, isolated
M-class activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.  The moderate
enhancement of >2MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit during
the past two days appeared to wane somewhat today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled.  A slight chance for
isolated active periods may exist for day three of the forecast
period, due to possible shock passage effects from today's M2 long
-duration flare event.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
Class M    35/35/40
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Mar 184
Predicted   10 Mar-12 Mar  185/190/195
90 Day Mean        09 Mar 218
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Mar  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar  005/006-005/006-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01