:Product: 20020310RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Mar 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 069 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels.  The largest
event was an M1.3/1f at 09/2210 UTC from Region 9866 (S09E61).  A
Type IV radio sweep and CME were associated with the flare but
SOHO/LASCO imagery indicates no earth directed component.  Region
9866 has grown in spot count to 19 and area coverage to 840
millionths.  There are signs that a magnetic delta configuration
maybe developing in the larger trailing spot.  At 10/1706 UTC a
partial halo CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery.  Analysis of the
event indicates a backside origin.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate with a chance of isolated M-class activity from Region
9866.  Due to the developing size and magnetic complexity of this
region there is a slight chance of a major event or proton event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  Active
conditions were observed at higher latitudes most likely due to a
prolonged period of southward Bz from 10/0900 to 10/1300 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.  Isolated periods of
active conditions are possible on day two and three of the forecast
period.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Mar 179
Predicted   11 Mar-13 Mar  185/190/195
90 Day Mean        10 Mar 217
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar  003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Mar  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar  005/005-008/010-008/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01