:Product: 20020311RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Mar 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 070 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels.  A long duration
M2 flare occurred at 10/2325 UTC just beyond the east limb (S20).  A
fast impressive non earth directed CME was associated with this
event.  Region 9866 (S08E47) continued to grow, although now at a
gradual rate, and has developed a beta-gamma-delta magnetic
configuration.  Other activity consisted of two minor C-class
flares.  Four new Regions were numbered today:  Region 9867
(S29E16), Region 9868 (N19E32), Region 9869 (N24E42) and Region 9870
(S17E62).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 9866 has the potential for M-class and major
events.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.  There is a slight
chance of isolated active conditions.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
Class M    45/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Mar 182
Predicted   12 Mar-14 Mar  185/190/190
90 Day Mean        11 Mar 217
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar  006/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Mar  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar  008/008-008/008-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01