:Product: 20020312RSGA.txt :Issued: 2002 Mar 12 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 071 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2002 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event was a C5/1f at 12/0837 UTC from Region 9866 (S10E35). Region 9866 is the most active region and continues its gradual growth with a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration in the larger trailing spot. A long duration C3.0 peaked at 12/0109 UTC with an overall duration of 5 hours 16 minutes. A full halo CME and Type IV radio sweep were associated with this event. The source of the CME is unclear. Activity in Region 9866 at that time suggest a possible source as does activity beyond the southeast limb. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9866 continues to grow and has the potential for major flare activity. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic fields is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one and two of the forecast period. On day three, there is a chance of active conditions due to the CME early on 12 March. III. Event Probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar Class M 50/50/55 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 12 Mar 178 Predicted 13 Mar-15 Mar 185/190/195 90 Day Mean 12 Mar 216 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar 008/010-008/010-012/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/20 Minor storm 05/05/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/25 Minor storm 05/05/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01