:Product: 20020313RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Mar 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 072 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate due to an M1/Sf at 12/2313
UTC in new Region 9871 (S21E70). This region rotated around the
east limb as a moderately-sized D-type sunspot group. Region 9866
(S11E20) remains the largest sunspot group and has developed mixed
polarities in its trailer portion. It has produced C-class subflare
activity during the day.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Low-level M-flares are possible in Regions 9866 and 9871.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Mar 184
Predicted   14 Mar-16 Mar  190/195/200
90 Day Mean        13 Mar 216
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar  008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar  008/010-012/012-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01