:Product: 20020314RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Mar 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 073 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was high. Region 9866 (S10E07) produced
an M5/2b flare at 14/0150 UTC. This Region also produced a number of
subflares. It remains the largest sunspot group on the disk and
retains its delta magnetic configuration in the trailer portion.
Region 9871 (S20E58) produced an M1/Sf flare at 13/2335 UTC. This
area also produced C-class activity.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Additional M-class flares are expected in Regions 9866 and
9871. Another major flare in 9866 is also possible.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Mar 181
Predicted   15 Mar-17 Mar  185/190/195
90 Day Mean        14 Mar 216
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Mar  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar  008/008-008/006-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01