:Product: 20020315RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Mar 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 074 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Only a few C-class subflares
occurred. Region 9866 (S09W06) has decayed somewhat since yesterday
but retains the delta magnetic configuration in the trailer
sunspots. Region 9871 (S20E44) has changed little. New Region 9872
(S31E09) emerged on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. M-class activity, possibly including a major flare,
remains possible in Region 9866.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
Class M    60/50/50
Class X    10/05/05
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Mar 176
Predicted   16 Mar-18 Mar  175/175/170
90 Day Mean        15 Mar 215
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar  005/005-008/008-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01