:Product: 20020316RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Mar 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 075 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 9866 (S09W19)
produced an M2/1F flare at 15/2310 UTC. The event had an associated
tenflare (190 sfu), type IV radio sweep, and an enhancement in the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9866 is the most likely candidate for M-class
flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to become active by 18 March due to the flare/CME mentioned
in Part IA.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
Class M    60/50/50
Class X    10/05/05
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Mar 185
Predicted   17 Mar-19 Mar  180/180/180
90 Day Mean        16 Mar 215
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar  003/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar  005/008-020/020-020/030
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/11
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01