:Product: 20020319RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Mar 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 078 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  Region 9866 (S10W59)
produced a long duration  M1/1f flare at 19/1144 UTC.  Two partial
halo CMEs in rapid succession occurred along with this event, with
an estimated plane of sky speed for the combined ejecta in the range
of 700-750 km/s.  Region 9866 has simplified to a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration.  Two new regions were numbered today:
Region 9874 (N18E21) and Region 9875 (S18E63).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate.  Region 9866 and Region 9871 have the potential for
M-class events.  There is a slight possibility for an isolated
X-class or proton event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels  Minor storm
levels were observed early in the day, due to a three hour period of
sustained southward Bz during 0200-0500 UTC.  The greater than 10
MeV proton event remains in progress, with a maximum flux of 53 pfu
observed at 19/0650 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active.  Active conditions are expected on
day one from effects of the CME on 18 March.  Activity is expected
to subside during day two.  By day three, effects from the CME
activity discussed in section 1A above are expected to result in
predominantly active conditions.
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Mar 175
Predicted   20 Mar-22 Mar  175/175/170
90 Day Mean        19 Mar 214
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar  009/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar  020/020-012/010-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/35
Minor storm           20/15/25
Major-severe storm    10/05/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/30/35
Minor storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    15/10/15