:Product: 20020321RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Mar 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 080 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Mar 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 9866
(S09W84) produced a C-class flare and a few bright surges as it
began to cross the west limb. Regions 9870 (S20W73), 9871 (S18W32)
and 9873 (S18W67) each produced C-class subflares, but were
otherwise unremarkable. New Regions 9879 (N15W50) and 9880 (N08E35)
were numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. There is a fair chance for an isolated,
low-level M-class flare during the period.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was enhanced
in the wake of yesterday's proton event, but gradually decreased
toward background levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
forecast to be at unsettled to active levels on 22 March in response
to a partial-halo CME observed on 19 March. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected during the rest of the period. There is a
slight chance for a proton flare early in the period from Region
9866 as it rotates out of view.
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar
Class M    50/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     10/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Mar 174
Predicted   22 Mar-24 Mar  170/165/165
90 Day Mean        21 Mar 213
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Mar  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Mar  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar  015/015-012/012-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/30/25
Minor storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    15/10/05