:Product: 20020322RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Mar 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 081 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
9866 (S10W96) produced a long-duration M1 X-ray flare at 22/1114 UTC
as it crossed the west limb. The flare was associated with a halo
CME and a proton event at greater than 10 MeV. Region 9866 was in a
slow decay phase during the last few days of its passage. Region
9878 (N08E54) produced a C8 X-ray flare at 22/0618 UTC. Minor growth
may have occurred in this region. Region 9871 (S20W47) retained
minor magnetic complexity near its leader spots, but was relatively
stable. New Regions 9881 (S05W08) and 9882 (N15E74) were numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There is a fair chance for an isolated, low-level
M-class flare during the period.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. A
greater than 10 MeV proton event began at geo-synchronous orbit at
22/2020 UTC in the wake of today's long-duration M1 flare. The event
was in progress and slowly increasing at the close of the period
with a reading of 10.5 pfu at 22/2100 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during most of the
period. However, there will be a chance for brief active levels on
25 March in response to today's CME. The greater than 10 MeV proton
event is expected to end early on 23 March.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     99/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Mar 172
Predicted   23 Mar-25 Mar  170/165/165
90 Day Mean        22 Mar 212
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar  005/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar  010/010-010/012-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05