:Product: 20020323RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Mar 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 082 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity decreased to low levels. Frequent
C-class flares occurred. Region 9876 (S16E30) was the most active
area on the disk and produced occasional C-class subflares. It grew
during the period with increased area and magnetic complexity,
particularly in its trailer spots. Region 9878 (N10E43) produced a
long-duration C2/Sf flare at 23/0330 UTC with no significant radio
emission. This region grew at a gradual pace with a minor increase
in area and spot count. Region 9871 (S18W60) produced an isolated
subflare as it continued to gradually decay. New Region 9883
(N06E67) was numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There is a fair chance for an M-class flare from Region
9876. Major flare potential may increase in this region if its
current rate of growth continues.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. Field
activity increased to unsettled to active levels following a sudden
impulse at 23/1137 UTC (16 nT, as measured by the Boulder USGS
magnetometer). The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at
22/2020 UTC continued. The preliminary maximum for this event was
16.2 pfu at 23/1320 UT.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during most of the
period. However, brief active conditions may occur during 25 - 26
March. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end early
in the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     50/01/01
PCAF       Yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Mar 170
Predicted   24 Mar-26 Mar  170/165/165
90 Day Mean        23 Mar 211
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Mar  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar  010/012-010/015-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01