:Product: 20020325RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Mar 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 084 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 9878 (N08E15) produced
the two largest events of the period - a C6/Sf at 25/1039Z and a C9
flare at 25/2008Z. No significant changes were noted in this
moderately complex beta-gamma spot group. Regions 9880 (N08W22) and
9881 (S03W48) have shown some growth this period, but remain
relatively stable.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9878 has the potential to produce isolated
M-class flares. Expect minor C-class flares from Regions 9876
(S15E05), 9880, and 9881.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The period began in a
disturbed state in the waning stages of yesterday's major
geomagnetic storm. Another interplanetary shock was observed at ACE
at 25/0058Z. The field remained quiet to unsettled following this
shock as Bz remained northward for the duration of this weak
transient passage.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
active periods.
III.  Event Probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Mar 170
Predicted   26 Mar-28 Mar  170/170/170
90 Day Mean        25 Mar 209
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar  029/047
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Mar  010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar  010/010-010/010-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/25
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/35/30
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05