:Product: 20020326RSGA.txt :Issued: 2002 Mar 26 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 085 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Mar 2002 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest event of the period was a C3/Sf from 9878 (N08E01). This region continues to slowly develop in size and complexity. Minor C-class flares were also observed in Region 9881 (S03W62). A strong CME observed off the west limb at around 26/1400Z, appears to have originated from behind the SW limb. Remaining regions on the visible disk were stable or in decay. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9878 has potential to produce isolated M-class flares. Occasional C-class flares are expected from Region 9881. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet early in the period, but became unsettled following the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream at around 26/0100Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods at high latitudes. This weak, coronal hole related disturbance should begin to subside by day two. III. Event Probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar Class M 40/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 26 Mar 166 Predicted 27 Mar-29 Mar 165/165/160 90 Day Mean 26 Mar 208 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 25 Mar 007/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Mar 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Mar-29 Mar 010/010-008/008-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/25/20 Minor storm 15/10/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 40/30/25 Minor storm 20/15/10 Major-severe storm 10/05/05