:Product: 20020327RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Mar 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 086 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Mar 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 9880 (N08W50) produced
the largest event of the period - a C3 flare at 27/1302Z. This
Beta-Gamma region increased in size and complexity with considerable
new flux emergence in the past 24 hours. Region 9878 (N10W13)
produced minor C-class flares and maintains a Delta configuration in
its trailing sunspots. New Regions 9884 (S18E38) and 9885 (N11E69)
were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Regions 9878 and 9880 have potential to produce an
isolated M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated, high
latitude active conditions early in the period. The coronal hole,
high speed stream which began early yesterday has gradually
decreased.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Mar 169
Predicted   28 Mar-30 Mar  165/165/160
90 Day Mean        27 Mar 207
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Mar  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Mar  008/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar  008/008-005/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01