:Product: 20020328RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Mar 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 087 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Mar 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  The period began
with multiple low level C-class flares that went optically
uncorrelated.  Region 9880 (N09W63) may have been responsible for
several of the minor C-class flares and underwent slight decay late
in the period.  The gamma portion of yesterday's magnetic
classification is no longer evident.  Region 9885 (N11E69) is
believed responsible for the largest flare during the period,
producing a C7 x-ray flare at 28/1800 UTC.  This region has shown
steady growth in penumbral coverage.  Region 9878 (N09W26) was
unimpressive this period and has been in steady decay, the delta
spot observed yesterday has become two distinct separate spots.
Although less magnetically complex, this region retains a gamma
magnetic signature.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  Regions 9880 and 9885 are magnetically
complex enough to produce isolated M-class flare activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field activity levels were at quiet to unsettled
levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field levels
are expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions throughout the
forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 29 Mar-31 Mar
Class M    45/45/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Mar 176
Predicted   29 Mar-31 Mar  170/170/165
90 Day Mean        28 Mar 206
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Mar  003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Mar  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar  005/008-006/008-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Mar-31 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    02/02/02