:Product: 20020330RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Mar 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 089 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Mar 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 9885 (N11E27)
produced the largest flare of the day, an M3/1n at 30/1301 UTC. This
is the largest, most complex area presently on the disk and also
produced several C-class subflares throughout the day. Regions 9884
(S19E02) and 9887 (N01E51) also generated subflare activity.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 9885 is expected to produce additional M-class
activity and may generate an isolated X-flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. A shock was
observed at the NASA ACE spacecraft at about 29/2140 UTC and was
followed by a 31 nT Sudden Impulse at Boulder at 29/2237 UTC. This
activity is presumed to be associated with the trans-equatorial
coronal hole mentioned yesterday.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active levels for the duration of
the 3-day forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Mar 189
Predicted   31 Mar-02 Apr  190/195/195
90 Day Mean        30 Mar 184
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Mar  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Mar  018/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr  018/015-018/015-018/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                50/50/30
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                60/60/60
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05