:Product: 20020402RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Apr 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 092 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity continued at low levels.  The largest
event of the period was an optically uncorrelated C9.4 flare at
02/0050 UTC.  No resulting CME activity was apparent in available
imagery from SOHO/LASCO.  Region 9887 (N02E11) was a dominant source
of numerous, lesser C-class flares throughout the period.  This
region has grown appreciably in size and retains moderate magnetic
complexity.  Three new regions were numbered today:  9890 (S15W49),
9891 (S08W08), and 9892 (N05E63), all appearing small and relatively
simple in structure.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 9887 appears to be a likely source for
continued C-class and potential M-class flare activity.  Region 9885
(N13W14) also retains sufficient size and complexity for potentially
significant flare activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.  High speed stream effects
from a favorably positioned coronal hole continued, but showed signs
of a gradual waning trend throughout the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
Isolated active periods are possible in local nighttime sectors
during the next 12-24 hours as high speed stream effects continue to
wane.  A chance for moderate to high flux levels of greater than 2
MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit exists for the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Apr 206
Predicted   03 Apr-05 Apr  210/205/205
90 Day Mean        02 Apr 203
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Apr  011/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Apr  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr  010/010-010/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01