:Product: 20020403RSGA.txt :Issued: 2002 Apr 03 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 093 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2002 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity remained at low levels. Several weak C-class events occurred throughout the period. Most flare activity was optically uncorrelated, however Regions 9887 (N02W02) and 9888 (S13E07) were both observed to produce C1/Sf events. New Region 9893 (N18E78) rotated into view and was numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate for the next three days. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A single active period was observed during 03/0300-0600 UTC, as coronal hole effects diminished, and quiet to unsettled conditions predominated thereafter. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit showed moderate enhancement today, but remained below event threshold. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Moderate to high flux of greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit is possible for the duration of the forecast period. III. Event Probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr Class M 50/50/50 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 03 Apr 209 Predicted 04 Apr-06 Apr 208/208/205 90 Day Mean 03 Apr 203 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr 010/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Apr 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr 008/010-005/008-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01