:Product: 20020405RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Apr 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 095 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Several weak C-class
flares occurred throughout the period, from sources including most
of the larger active regions on the visible disk.  The largest event
of the period was a C4/Sf at 04/2306 UTC, from a source near newly
numbered Region 9895 (N06E58).  Two other regions were numbered
today, 9894 (N14W09), and 9896 (S11E74).  Newly numbered Region 9896
appears to be the return of old Region 9866, which was a source of
several energetic flares on its last transit.  It now appears as a
large, single polarity spot (possibly the leading spot of a large
bipolar group), though lacks any evident bright plage area as would
be expected for an energetic region.  It's present position near the
east limb prevents detailed analysis.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low to moderate, though a chance for an isolated major
flare exists, particularly for the emergent regions near the east
limb.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet, with an isolated
unsettled period observed at higher latitudes during 05/1800-2100
UTC.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux observed at
geosynchronous orbit was again at high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled.  A chance for isolated
active periods exists for days two and three of the forecast period.
Greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain above event
threshold for most of the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Apr 217
Predicted   06 Apr-08 Apr  215/210/205
90 Day Mean        05 Apr 203
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Apr  004/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr  008/008-010/010-012/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01