:Product: 20020406RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Apr 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 096 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Apr 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 9893 (N19E40)
produced the largest flare during the period, a C9/1F flare
occurring at 06/0619 UTC.  This region has become slightly more
complex during the period and has also seen an increase in penumbral
coverage.  Many minor C-class flares from the more ominous regions
were seen on the disk today as well.  One worthy of mention, a C2/Sf
flare that materialized from an area void of spots (S17E48) also
produced a weak Type II sweep with an estimated shock velocity of
296 km/s.  LASCO imagery doesn't depict any geoeffective potential
to this event. New Regions 9897 (S01W02), 9898 (S19E66), and 9899
(N18E72) were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  A chance for an isolated major flare exists
due to the magnetic complexity seen in several regions.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be quiet on day one of the forecast.  A slight chance of
isolated active conditions exist for days two and three.  The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux dropped below event levels at
05/2140 UTC (max flux 2140 pfu's at 05/1725 UTC) , although levels
remain elevated at the time of this writing.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Apr 206
Predicted   07 Apr-09 Apr  205/200/190
90 Day Mean        06 Apr 203
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Apr  003/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Apr  004/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr  010/010-012/012-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/25/25
Minor storm           01/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01