:Product: 20020407RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Apr 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 097 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Apr 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 9893 (N18E27)
produced most of today's activity as well as the largest flare of
the day, a C9/1f flare occurring at 07/0523 UTC.  The growth of
several additional spots seen today in this region although areal
coverage went mostly unchanged from yesterday.  A source region
beyond the east limb produced a Type II radio sweep at 07/0012 UTC
that had an estimated shock velocity of 586 km/s.  LASCO
differencing imagery captured an east limb CME shortly after the
Type II was observed, although it is unlikely this event will be
geoeffective.  New Regions 9900 (S29E07), 9901 (N20E37), and 9902
(N11E75) were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low to moderate, although Region 9893 and 9897
(S02W17) both possess the potential to produce an isolated major
flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux observed at geosynchronous orbit
continued a steady drop from moderately enhanced levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active
periods possible on days one and two of the forecast period.  Day
three should return to predominantly quiet conditions.  The greater
than 2 Mev electron flux should be slightly enhanced through the
first day of the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Apr
Predicted   08 Apr-10 Apr  200/190/185
90 Day Mean        07 Apr 201
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Apr  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr  012/012-007/007-004/007
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01