:Product: 20020408RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Apr 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 098 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Apr 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 9901 (N19E24)
produced a C6/Sf flare at 08/0150 UTC and has doubled it's penumbral
coverage since yesterday.  A C6 x-ray flare which appears to have
originated in Region 9899 (N18E46) was the largest flare of the
period, occurring at 08/2046 UTC.  This region has shown slow but
steady growth today, in both magnetic complexity and penumbral
coverage.  Multiple minor C-class were observed today with many
going optically uncorrelated.  Region 9893 (N18E13) was quiescent
today producing no optically correlated flares although this region
has developed a weak delta magnetic spot in the trailing polarity of
the group.  New Region 9903 (N19E74) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.  The greater than
10 MeV electron flux was slightly elevated throughout the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at predominantly quiet with occasional unsettled
conditions throughout the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Apr 206
Predicted   09 Apr-11 Apr  200/195/185
90 Day Mean        08 Apr 203
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Apr  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Apr  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr  005/005-004/008-004/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor storm           01/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01