:Product: 20020409RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Apr 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 099 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels.  Region 9899
(N18E33) produced an M2/2b flare at 09/0042 UTC with an associated
Type II radio sweep that had an estimated shock velocity of 552
km/s.  The CME activity associated with this event did not appear to
be earth-directed in SOHO/LASCO imagery.  This region continues to
show slow growth in magnetic complexity, evidenced by the addition of
satellite spots and penumbral development.  An M1 x-ray flare
occurred at 09/1302 UTC that went optically uncorrelated.  Region
9893 (N19W00)  was again, quiescent today, showing no significant
activity or appreciable changes from yesterday.  However, the delta
magnetic spot in this region remains intact.  Region 9887 (N04W82)
didn't produce any optically correlated flare activity today
although an eruptive prominence on the leading edge of region
occurred at 09/0720 UTC.  This region appears to be in decay as it
exits the disk.  New region 9904 (S16W07) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.  The greater than
10 MeV electron flux remains slightly elevated, although well below
event threshold.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be predominantly at quiet levels through the forecast
period.  A slight chance of isolated active periods exists late on
day three of the forecast period, due to the possibility of some
flanking shock effects from the CME mentioned in IA.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Apr 205
Predicted   10 Apr-12 Apr  200/195/185
90 Day Mean        09 Apr 203
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr  002/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Apr  002/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr  004/005-004/005-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01