:Product: 20020411RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Apr 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.   Region 9893
(N19W27) produced a C9.9/1N flare on 11/0153 UTC.  This region has
shown growth in area and spot count in the last 24 hours but
maintains its magnetic beta-gamma configuration.  Region 9901
(N21W14) increase in magnetic complexity to a beta-gamma-delta
configuration.  Region 9904 (S16W36) produced a C9/1F flare on
11/1626 UTC with an associated Type II Radio Burst (608 km/s).
Initial analysis at SOHO/LASCO imagery does not indicate an earth
directed component.  Two new regions were numbered today:  Region
9906 (S16E40) and Region 9907 (S04E74)
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 9893/9901 complex has the potential for a major
event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  At 11/1800
UTC a greater than 10 Mev proton enhancement began with a current
level of 1.0 pfu at geosynchronous orbit.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active.  On Day two of the forecast
period a weak CME shock is expected to arrive.  On day three another
possible CME shock is due to arrive and should result in unsettled
to active conditions.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Apr 197
Predicted   12 Apr-14 Apr  195/190/195
90 Day Mean        11 Apr 202
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Apr  004/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Apr  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr  010/012-012/015-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/30
Minor storm           05/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/25/30
Minor storm           05/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05