:Product: 20020412RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Apr 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 102 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Apr 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels.  Region 9901
(N21W26) produced an M4/1F flare on 12/1802 UTC with an associated
Type IV Radio Sweep.  Region 9893 (N20W39) has developed a delta
magnetic configuration in the trailing spot and has increased in
area and spot count.  LASCO/EIT imagery indicates that Region 9893
is the most likely source of an optically uncorrelated M1.4 flare
that occurred on 12/1310 UTC.  Region 9906 (S16E26) has shown rapid
growth in spot count, area, and now has a beta-gamma magnetic
configuration.  This region also shows some indication of a
developing delta magnetic  configuration.  As Region 9907 (S05E61)
rotates onto the disk it has revealed a moderate size spot group and
a beta-gamma magnetic classification.  One new region was numbered
today:  Region 9908 (N05W25).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate.  Region 9893/9901 complex has been active and has two
delta configurations.  The potential for M-class events is good.
Region 9906 and 9907 are developing and have a slight chance of
M-class events.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with one 3
hour period of minor storm conditions.  This isolated minor storm
condition coincided with a sector boundary crossing.  At the time of
this issue the NASA/ACE EPAM data have shown a steady increase in
low energy protons possibly due to expected CME shock.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active.  A CME shock is expected midday on
day one of the forecast period.  A second shock expected midday on
day two of the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Apr-15 Apr
Class M    65/65/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/05
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Apr 212
Predicted   13 Apr-15 Apr  210/210/205
90 Day Mean        12 Apr 202
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Apr  010/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Apr  014/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr  015/015-015/020-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Apr-15 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/30
Minor storm           10/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/30/30
Minor storm           10/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05