:Product: 20020413RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Apr 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 103 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was a low levels.  The largest event was
a C3.6/Sf from Region 9900 (S29W68).  Region 9906 (S15E13) has shown
rapid growth with an area of 470 millionths, 38 spots, and
beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration in the trailing spot.
Region 9893 (N18W53) and Region 9901 (N20W39) have maintained there
beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration and have shown some increase
in area. Region 9907 (S04E46) has increased in area and spot count.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate.  Region 9906 has the potential for producing M-class
events and a small chance of a major event.  Region 9893/9901
complex has M-class potential.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  A 24 nT
sudden impulse was observed on the boulder magnetometer at 12/2243
UTC.  The sudden impulse is likely the result of a weak CME shock
passage.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active.  We are still expecting some CME
effects on day one of the forecast period and possibly early on day
two.  A small coronal hole may keep the geomagnetic field in
unsettled conditions on day three of the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr
Class M    70/65/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/05
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Apr 226
Predicted   14 Apr-16 Apr  225/220/220
90 Day Mean        13 Apr 202
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Apr  014/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Apr  014/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr  015/020-010/015-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01