:Product: 20020414RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Apr 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 9893 (N20W67)
produced an M1/1f flare at 14/0351 UTC. Sunspots in this area, along
with Region 9901 (N22W56), remain moderately large and complex.
Several other C-class subflares also occurred here, including a
C9/Sf with associated Type II radio sweep at 14/0739 UTC. Region
9906 (S15W02) is also an area of note, continuing to grow and
develop, and  producing C-class subflares.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. M-class activity is expected in Regions 9906 and the
9893/9901 complex. A major flare is also  possible in these regions.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. The 13
April Fredericksburg A-index reported in Part (V) is estimated.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are
possible.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Apr 210
Predicted   15 Apr-17 Apr  210/205/205
90 Day Mean        14 Apr 202
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr  010/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr  014/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr  015/012-010/008-010/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/15
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/30/20
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01