:Product: 20020415RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Apr 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. The Region complex
9893/9901 (N20W75) continues to flare as it approaches the west
limb. The largest was an M3/Sf at 15/0014 UTC. This region appears
to retain its mixed polarities and sunspot delta configuration.
Region 9906 (S15W14) also produced M-class activity, a long-duration
M1/Sf at 15/0355 UTC. An apparent Earth-directed CME is visible in
LASCO coronagraph images following this flare. Decay in Region 9906
since yesterday is most notable as fragmentation in the trailer
sunspot complex. Region 9907 (S04E21) continues to develop but has
not yet produced significant activity.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Additional M-class flares are possible in Regions 9906 and
the 9893/9901 complex, as is an isolated major flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet unsettled for the first day of the forecast
period. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on days two and
three in response to the CME mentioned in Part IA.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
Class M    75/50/50
Class X    10/05/01
Proton     10/05/01
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Apr 203
Predicted   16 Apr-18 Apr  200/190/185
90 Day Mean        15 Apr 202
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr  008/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Apr  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr  008/008-018/015-018/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/30
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/40/40
Minor storm           05/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05