:Product: 20020416RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Apr 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 106 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. M-flares continued in
Region complex 9893/9901 (N20W90), including an M1 at 15/2324 UTC
and an M2/Sf at 16/1319 UTC. Region 9906 (S15W28) has regenerated
since yesterday, increasing penumbral area in the trailer sunspot
complex and reforming its delta configurations. Region 9907 (S03E07)
has simplified somewhat.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. M-class activity is expected in either Region 9893/9901 or
Region 9906. A major flare in Region 9906 is possible.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to become unsettled to active by the end of 17 April UTC in
response to a CME which occurred early on 15 April. Activity should
return to quiet to unsettled levels by the end of the forecast
period.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
Class M    60/50/40
Class X    10/05/01
Proton     10/05/01
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Apr 196
Predicted   17 Apr-19 Apr  190/185/180
90 Day Mean        16 Apr 201
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Apr  003/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Apr  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr  018/015-018/020-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/30
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01