:Product: 20020428RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Apr 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 118 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Apr 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. The only C-class flare of the
period was a C1/Sf from Region 9924 (S15W64) at 28/1823Z. No
significant activity or changes were noted in any of the active
regions.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. Regions 9914 (N05W51), 9915 (N12W40) and 9919
(N14E01) have the best potential for isolated C-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The recurrent high speed
coronal hole stream developed late last period and produced mostly
active conditions during local nighttime hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to active levels. The active periods
will occur predominantly during local nighttime hours.
III.  Event Probabilities 29 Apr-01 May
Class M    15/15/20
Class X    01/01/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Apr 147
Predicted   29 Apr-01 May  145/145/150
90 Day Mean        28 Apr 194
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Apr  010/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Apr  015/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Apr-01 May  012/012-010/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Apr-01 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/25
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/40/30
Minor storm           25/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01