:Product: 20020429RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Apr 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 119 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Several low, optically
uncorrelated C-class flares were observed, the largest being a C4 at
29/0940Z. The likely sources for most of the discrete X-ray bursts
were Regions 9915 (N12W53) and 9919 (N15W13). No appreciable changes
were noted in these or the remaining active regions on the visible
disk. The overall enhanced X-ray baseline is likely due to the
return of several active regions on or near the east limb.
Considerable CME activity was noted off the east limb over the past
24 hours. New Regions 9927 (S28E68), and 9928 (N18E75) were numbered
today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
Continued C-class flares are likely from Regions 9915 and 9919. The
potential for activity at or near the east limb will increase over
the coming days.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods at high latitudes. The disturbed conditions are due to a
high speed coronal hole stream that began on the 27th.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is expect
to continue at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active
periods at high latitudes.
III.  Event Probabilities 30 Apr-02 May
Class M    15/20/30
Class X    01/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Apr 153
Predicted   30 Apr-02 May  155/160/165
90 Day Mean        29 Apr 193
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr  014/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Apr  008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May  008/010-005/008-008/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr-02 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/30
Minor storm           10/05/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/30/40
Minor storm           15/05/15
Major-severe storm    05/01/05