:Product: 20020430RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Apr 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. An M1 flare occurred at
30/0822 UTC. The source of this event seems to be just beyond the
southeast limb. Several C-class flares also occurred during the past
24 hours. Sources included disk Regions 9914 (N05W80), 9919
(N14W28), and probably one or more unnumbered east limb regions. New
Region 9929 (N22E16) emerged on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. A general trend of increased activity is expected as
the east limb regions rotate onto the disk.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 01 May-03 May
Class M    30/40/50
Class X    01/01/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Apr 153
Predicted   01 May-03 May  155/160/165
90 Day Mean        30 Apr 192
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr  006/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Apr  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May  005/006-008/012-008/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May-03 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05