:Product: 20020501RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 May 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Several C-class subflares
occurred with most of them originating in new Region 9932 (S28E56).
So far this area appears to be a fairly small bipolar group just to
the northeast of Region 9927 (S30E43). Region 9926 (N14W29) has
grown since yesterday and has developed some mixed sunspot
polarities. It is just to the east of decaying Region 9919 (N13W40).
Newly numbered sunspot groups include 9930 (N12W17), 9931 (N15E19),
9932 (S28E56), 9933 (N16E64), and 9934 (S18E73). None appear to be
particularly large or complex.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. C-class and low-level M-class flares are possible from
a number of regions, including 9919, 9926, 9927, 9928, 9932, 9933,
and 9934.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux was slightly enhanced (but remaining below the 10 pfu
event threshold) early on 01 May. The enhancement is believed to be
associated with a backside CME visible in LASCO observations.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. The proton flux enhancement from
the backside CME is expected to slowly diminish to background
levels. Geomagnetic activity from this CME is not expected.
III.  Event Probabilities 02 May-04 May
Class M    30/40/50
Class X    01/01/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 May 162
Predicted   02 May-04 May  170/180/185
90 Day Mean        01 May 191
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr  005/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 May  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May  008/012-008/012-008/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May-04 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05