:Product: 20020502RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 May 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Only a few small C-class flares
occurred. Region 9934 (S18E62) is the largest and probably the most
magnetically complex sunspot group on the disk. The region appears
to contain some mixed polarities, and possibly a delta
configuration, but is still too close to the limb for certainty. New
Regions 9935 (S18E33) and 9936 (S15E42) were numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. C-class events are possible from a number of regions.
Region 9934 appears to be the most capable of M-class activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 03 May-05 May
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 May 169
Predicted   03 May-05 May  175/180/185
90 Day Mean        02 May 190
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 May  003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 May  004/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May  005/008-005/008-005/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 May-05 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05