:Product: 20020503RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 May 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. The most interesting flare of
the past day was a long-duration C6/Sf at 02/2134 UTC in Region 9926
(N15W56). This event was associated with a filament eruption, Type
II sweep, and a CME visible in LASCO images that was apparently
directed towards the northwest. CME material was also seen directed
towards the southeast but preliminary analysis suggests that this
may be related to a separate event, possibly from beyond the east
limb. Region 9934 (S17E48) remains the largest and most complex
sunspot group on the disk and is currently a moderately-large E-type
group with a delta configuration in the leader spot complex. This
region has produced flares during the past day but none of them have
had significant x-ray output. New Regions 9937 (S09E68) and 9938
(S04E72) are rotating onto the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. C-class flares are expected to continue from a number
of sunspot groups. Region 9934 remains the most likely source of
M-class activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Enhanced activity levels are
possible on 05-06 May but a significant disturbance from the LDE/CME
discussed in Part IA is not expected.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 May-06 May
Class M    30/40/50
Class X    01/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 May 179
Predicted   04 May-06 May  185/190/195
90 Day Mean        03 May 189
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 May  004/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May  005/007-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May-06 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/25
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/30/30
Minor storm           10/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/10/10