:Product: 20020504RSGA.txt :Issued: 2002 May 04 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2002 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9937 (S10E56) produced a C9/Sf flare at 04/1338 UTC. Region 9934 (S17E35) has remained relatively unchanged. It continues to be the most complex region on the disk with a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration in the leader spot. Region 9929 (N21W41) has shown the most change, increasing in area, extent and spot count. Two new regions were numbered today: Region 9939 (N16E67) and Region 9940 (N14E72). IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9934 has the potential for M-class events. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels with one period of unsettled conditions (6-9 UTC) observed on the USGS Boulder magnetometer. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. The CME from a long duration C6 event on 2 May is expected to arrive late on the first day of the forecast period but no significant activity is expected. III. Event Probabilities 05 May-07 May Class M 35/35/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 04 May 190 Predicted 05 May-07 May 200/210/210 90 Day Mean 04 May 189 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 03 May 004/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 May 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May 010/010-010/010-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May-07 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/25/20 Minor storm 10/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 30/30/20 Minor storm 15/15/10 Major-severe storm 10/10/05