:Product: 20020505RSGA.txt :Issued: 2002 May 05 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2002 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9934 (S17E21) produced a C4/Sf flare at 05/0808 UTC. This region has shown some growth in area, extent and spot count in the last 24 hours. The delta magnetic configuration in the leader spot shows signs of simplifying but the region maintains a beta-gamma-delta magnetic classification. Region 9937 (S09E42) has shown rapid growth over the last 24 hours with area coverage more than doubling to 210 millionths and spot count is at 10. Region 9929 (N22W53) continues gradual growth. Three new regions were numbered today: Region 9941 (S22E09), Region 9942 (N22E34), and Region 9943 (S11E63). IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9934 has the potential for M-class events. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Unsettled conditions are expected due to the effects of a weak CME shock due to arrive early on day one of the forecast period. III. Event Probabilities 06 May-08 May Class M 40/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 05 May 180 Predicted 06 May-08 May 190/200/205 90 Day Mean 05 May 188 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 04 May 004/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May 006/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May 010/010-008/008-005/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May-08 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/20/15 Minor storm 10/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 30/20/15 Minor storm 15/10/05 Major-severe storm 10/05/01