:Product: 20020506RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 May 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  The largest event
was a optically uncorrelated C2/1f flare at 06/1604 UTC.  Region
9934 (S17E08) has shown slight decay and has simplified to a
beta-gamma magnetic configuration.  At 06/1350 UTC a partial halo
CME appeared in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery on the east limb.  Analysis of
EIT, GOES X-Ray, and H-alpha data indicate a probable backside
event.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  Region 9934 has lost it's delta configuration in the
leader spot.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active levels.  One 3-hour period
(15-18 UTC) was at active levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.  Unsettled conditions
are expected for day one of the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 May-09 May
Class M    35/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 May 191
Predicted   07 May-09 May  195/200/205
90 Day Mean        06 May 188
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 May  002/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May  008/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May-09 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01