:Product: 20020507RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 May 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels.  Region 9937
(S09E15) produced an M1.4 flare at 07/0346 UTC.  Associated with
this flare was a Type IV radio burst and a full halo CME.  Region
9937 is now appears to be in gradual decay.  Region 9934 (S17W06)
has not shown any significant changes in the last 24 hours.  Two new
regions were numbered today:  Region 9944 (N08E35) and Region 9945
(S05E66).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 9934 has a slight chance of producing M-class
events.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  The CME from the M1 event at
07/0346 UTC is expected to arrive on day two of the forecast period.
A chance active conditions, particularly at higher latitudes, are
possible from this CME.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 May-10 May
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 May 187
Predicted   08 May-10 May  195/200/200
90 Day Mean        07 May 188
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 May  006/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 May  008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May  005/006-012/012-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May-10 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/25
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/30
Minor storm           05/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05